Here’s what smart people are saying about Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran

Bishop, the head of global policy research at Signum Global Advisors, wrote in a research note sent to Business Insider that “as of now, our basecase remains that President Trump is likely biding his time before a larger offensive, rather than ‘genuinely’ agreeing to end the war on Iran’s terms.”

Bishop wrote that the advisory firm takes this stance because its members believe it is more likely that Trump was looking to de-escalate the conflict and calm markets rather than that he suddenly became “comfortable” with the idea of Iran having long-term veto power over the Strait of Hormuz.

“Whether this proves to have been the case will determine whether today marks the beginning of the end for the war, or a mere delay in further escalation ahead,” Bishop wrote.

De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in a post on Bluesky that, based on current markets, “gas prices could start reversing nationally in 48 hours or so- by a few cents every day.”

Gas prices have skyrocketed in the last month as the war produced the largest supply shock to the global oil market in history.

“Diesel prices may lag slightly- but where things stand now, diesel is NO longer likely to reach a record,” De Haan wrote. “National average gasoline could fall below $4 in ~1-2 weeks, diesel >$5 in 6-8 weeks.”

“Coming days will see volatility as the US/Iran and other parties negotiate,” De Haan wrote in a second post. “Iran has signaled safe passage through the Strait for two weeks. Right now: oil prices dropping significantly, and that could lead gas price increases to fade over the next 48 hours before drops then begin.”

Joe Kent, the former director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center who resigned from his post in March because he opposes the war in Iran, spoke in a video on X on Tuesday night. He said that in order for the ceasefire to be effective, it is “absolutely critical” that the US remove its offensive military support from Israel to prevent the nation from continuing to strike Iran and violate the terms of the deal.

Kent said the US is “on the cusp” of being able to fix the energy supply crisis caused by the war. But he said it’s crucial to keep in mind that Israel’s strategic objective of toppling the Iranian government “works against” the US government’s attempts to broker peace.

“We have to understand that there is no military solution to the conflict right now,” Kent said.

So far, he said, the military action the US has taken has destabilized the region, strengthened the Iranian government, and threatened energy.